Evolution is inevitable (Full Version)

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Jhud -> Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 12:07:37 PM)

As most people who know me can attest, I am probably one of the staunchest critics of evolution on these forums. I have long doubted evolution because there I felt there simply wasn't any substantive evidence to support it, but as someone who strives to be intellectually honest, I have always been willing to be convinced when such evidence was found.

Well, it's been found, and I can no longer honestly doubt evolution.

As this video clearly shows, evolution is occuring as we speak.

Not just 'micro' evolution, but substantive morphological change, allowing for new capabilities structures and behaviors. For those of you willing to see it, the evidence is clearly there, and I am sure once you watch it you will join me.

*Note: As it is a BBC science report, there is one brief commercial at the beginning*




essentialsaltes -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 12:49:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jhud
Well, it's been found, and I can no longer honestly doubt evolution.


Terry Jones for the win!




1love1God1way -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 1:19:25 PM)

Those stinkers would leave a heavy load on my car windshield. . .




cow451 -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 3:57:16 PM)

In the next installment they land on Noah's ark.[sm=flagbritish.jpg]




Agahnim -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 5:35:26 PM)

Are you sure this video is real? I’m always skeptical of any news story that appears on April 1st.




Jhud -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 6:48:59 PM)

quote:

Are you sure this video is real? I’m always skeptical of any news story that appears on April 1st.


I would say hyper-skeptical; the BBC is an esteemed news organization and it's commitment to scientific coverage is impeccable; do you really think they would decieve the public this way?




Agahnim -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 7:04:32 PM)

quote:

I would say hyper-skeptical; the BBC is an esteemed news organization and it's commitment to scientific coverage is impeccable; do you really think they would decieve the public this way?

Ordinarily no, but I’ve seen organizations that are just as reputable as BBC still fall prey to the desire to play pranks on people for April Fool’s Day.

It’s odd that our normal roles would be reversed like this, where I’m the one disputing the validity of a line of evidence for evolution that you find convincing. But as much as I’d like for you to accept evolution, I would hate for the thing that ends up convincing you to turn out to be a joke.




unclemonkey -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 7:12:43 PM)

ORIGINAL:Juhd
quote:

I would say hyper-skeptical; the BBC is an esteemed news organization and it's commitment to scientific coverage is impeccable; do you really think they would decieve the public this way?

No more on April 1st than any other day of the year. This is on par with their coverage of the “Chad Skull” which they didn’t reserve for April 1st.




unclemonkey -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 7:14:18 PM)

ORIGINAL:Agahnim
quote:

I would hate for the thing that ends up convincing you to turn out to be a joke.

How would you feel if rather than a joke it was a fraud?




DanJames -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 7:52:30 PM)

Don't do it JHUD!!!




1love1God1way -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/1/2008 9:23:15 PM)

According to my watch, Jhud has 3.5 more hours of evolutionist left in him.




Jhud -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 12:58:35 AM)

quote:

It’s odd that our normal roles would be reversed like this, where I’m the one disputing the validity of a line of evidence for evolution that you find convincing. But as much as I’d like for you to accept evolution, I would hate for the thing that ends up convincing you to turn out to be a joke.


Ok, ok, you have convinced me - evolution is still a fraud!

See, I am amenable to a convincing argument. [:)]




1love1God1way -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 1:24:43 AM)

Happy April 2, Jhud.




Bettawrekonize -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 1:27:53 AM)

quote:


The BBC will today screen remarkable footage of penguins flying as part of its new natural history series, Miracles of Evolution.
...
BBC1 viewers will see the penguins not only take flight from the Antarctic wastes, but fly thousands of miles to the Amazonian rainforest to find winter sun.

"The film reveals nature's stunning glory in exciting and unexpected ways, so much so that it defies belief," said Mr Jones.

"Not only does it create a vivid and emotional experience for the viewer, it also illustrates just how bold and simple Darwin's idea of natural selection was."


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/01/npenguin101.xml

This is incredible. If I didn't see it on BBC news, I wouldn't have believed it. It truly is a miracle.




Bettawrekonize -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 1:29:55 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: 1love1God1way
Happy April 2, Jhud.


Still April 1st where I live. I dunno what timezone you or Jhud are in.




1love1God1way -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 1:37:12 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bettawrekonize

quote:

ORIGINAL: 1love1God1way
Happy April 2, Jhud.


Still April 1st where I live. I dunno what timezone you or Jhud are in.


Oh, phooey. Well, you're just going to have to keep on believing that Jhud has recanted for a few more hours.




cybrjewls -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 4:02:35 AM)

LOL!! I see, now, why the 'invisible hand' of natural selection chose to give penguins wings!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jhud

As most people who know me can attest, I am probably one of the staunchest critics of evolution on these forums. I have long doubted evolution because there I felt there simply wasn't any substantive evidence to support it, but as someone who strives to be intellectually honest, I have always been willing to be convinced when such evidence was found.

Well, it's been found, and I can no longer honestly doubt evolution.

As this video clearly shows, evolution is occuring as we speak.

Not just 'micro' evolution, but substantive morphological change, allowing for new capabilities structures and behaviors. For those of you willing to see it, the evidence is clearly there, and I am sure once you watch it you will join me.

*Note: As it is a BBC science report, there is one brief commercial at the beginning*




Agahnim -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 6:08:03 AM)

quote:

Ok, ok, you have convinced me - evolution is still a fraud!

See, I am amenable to a convincing argument. [:)]

Well, at least now I know what type of evidence it would take to convince you, even if this particular example of it wasn’t real.

I think I might be able to come up with some legitimate examples of mutations leading to a major morphological changes, which gives the individuals that have them abilities they would not have otherwise. This article is one—it’s an African tribe whose feet have evolved to resemble the feet of ostriches, which improves their climbing ability. And this article is dated March 30th, two days too early to be the same thing as the flying penguins.

Is this relevant enough to the topic of the thread for us to discuss it here? If not, I can start a new thread about it.




Jhud -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 11:35:16 AM)

quote:

I think I might be able to come up with some legitimate examples of mutations leading to a major morphological changes, which gives the individuals that have them abilities they would not have otherwise. This article is one—it’s an African tribe whose feet have evolved to resemble the feet of ostriches, which improves their climbing ability. And this article is dated March 30th, two days too early to be the same thing as the flying penguins.

Is this relevant enough to the topic of the thread for us to discuss it here? If not, I can start a new thread about it.



If Darwin was right, and a genetic modification of the sort we see there (Ectrodactyly, leading to the 'ostrich-like' appearance of certain tribe members with the condition), then we should expect a gradual replacement of the predominant population with those who are more fit - in the case of the Vadoma, those who are better able to climb trees, and presumably access food.

We should also see an eventual uniqueness form that would cause the Vadoma to become a separate breeding population, and precipitate speciation – in short, the Vadoma should be becoming a separate species, unable to breed with other humans.

And if Behe is right, a la the principles articulated in The Edge of Evolution, then what we see here is a simple mutation, probably constituting a single change to a gene, which in essence ‘breaks’ the existing gene, but in a way that either is neutral with regard to fitness, or beneficial in a very unique circumstance. What it will not constitute is a complex information genetic increase allowing for the development of a novel structure, or precipitating a novel species which can now only breed among its members.

In my general reading of the matter the ‘ostrich toe’ variation still only exists in the minority of the Vadoma population, and there has been no research done demonstrating that those folks climb any better than people without this genetic variant.

And even the article you cited confirms that “If they had ventured forth - and expanded their gene pool - it is unlikely the Vadoma would have maintained ectrodactyly.”, so it seems certainly not to have arisen to the level of a speciation event, a complex information modification, or even a proven benefit.

I am willing however to predict that as more information becomes available, the observations will more closely fit Behe’s model then they will Darwin’s.




Agahnim -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 1:41:33 PM)

Now that you’re giving me a more exact description of what your opinion about this is, I think I have a better understanding of what could theoretically convince you of evolution. The Vadoma tribe was an example of a new morphological structure, but it sounds like what you would need to see is something more precise than this.

quote:

And if Behe is right, a la the principles articulated in The Edge of Evolution, then what we see here is a simple mutation, probably constituting a single change to a gene, which in essence ‘breaks’ the existing gene, but in a way that either is neutral with regard to fitness, or beneficial in a very unique circumstance. What it will not constitute is a complex information genetic increase allowing for the development of a novel structure, or precipitating a novel species which can now only breed among its members.

So basically, it sounds like you will accept evolution if you can see examples of three things:

1: A mutation that offers a general survival advantage to the individuals that have it, rather than only being useful under specific circumstances. (Such as for climbing.)

2: A mutation that increases the information content of the genome of organisms that have it, and gives them abilities they would not have otherwise.

3: A mutation (or series of mutations) that causes a group of individuals to become an entirely new species, which can only breed among its own members.

If Behe’s scientific argument against evolution predicts that none of these three things will ever be discovered, then it looks you’ve finally provided a testable prediction that’s made by Intelligent Design. If the data that exists is consistent with these predictions, then the theory is supported, whereas if discoveries are made that contradict them, the theory is falsified, just as is the case with any other scientific theory. Is this correct? So that if I can provide examples of all three of these things, you will agree that Behe’s scientific case against evolution is falsified?

I think I might be able to provide examples of these three things, but before I attempt it I’d like to make sure I have an accurate understanding of what you would need to see in order to agree that ID is falsified. And I’d also like to make sure you think discussing this is relevant to the topic of the thread, so when and if I provide them you don’t accuse me of posting something “off topic”.




DanJames -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 2:09:32 PM)

Ectrodactyly is a result of inbreeding which is supposed by creationists to be the cause of the morphological changes in the various races to begin with. I don't see why there should be any disagreement between evolutionists and creationists on this account. After all, the skin of the darker races protects them from sun burns, just in case you wanted another example.




Jhud -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 4:01:53 PM)

quote:

So basically, it sounds like you will accept evolution if you can see examples of three things:

1: A mutation that offers a general survival advantage to the individuals that have it, rather than only being useful under specific circumstances. (Such as for climbing.)

2: A mutation that increases the information content of the genome of organisms that have it, and gives them abilities they would not have otherwise.

3: A mutation (or series of mutations) that causes a group of individuals to become an entirely new species, which can only breed among its own members.

If Behe’s scientific argument against evolution predicts that none of these three things will ever be discovered, then it looks you’ve finally provided a testable prediction that’s made by Intelligent Design. If the data that exists is consistent with these predictions, then the theory is supported, whereas if discoveries are made that contradict them, the theory is falsified, just as is the case with any other scientific theory. Is this correct? So that if I can provide examples of all three of these things, you will agree that Behe’s scientific case against evolution is falsified?

I think I might be able to provide examples of these three things, but before I attempt it I’d like to make sure I have an accurate understanding of what you would need to see in order to agree that ID is falsified. And I’d also like to make sure you think discussing this is relevant to the topic of the thread, so when and if I provide them you don’t accuse me of posting something “off topic”.


Well, no, what I said was that ‘a complex information genetic increase allowing for the development of a novel structure, or precipitating a novel species which can now only breed among its members.”

To be more precise as that was just a reference to a more in-depth analysis by Behe in his book, Behe notes that observable mutations have observable affects which do indeed lead to observable evolutionary changes. For example, hemoglobin has evolved in response to the presence of a malarial parasite; it resulted from a single nucleotide mutation of the β-globin gene. Because in certain portion of the population this mutation confers resistance to malaria, it has spread throughout populations exposed to malaria. All of this is well documented.

What Behe argues is that such modifications are not unexpected or beyond the statistical bounds of change which can result from incidental modifications to genetic information. At a certain point, when multiple mutations are required for a morphological change, or when such mutations required occur in disparate regions of the genome and only function through the machinery of the cell, such a change is a statistically prohibitive; we simply would not rationally expect such a thing a thing to occur in nature via unguided mechanisms.

That being the case, one would predict that as much as we observe mutations to occur, none of the structures or systems would be the product of multiple necessary and interdependent and incidental modifications which are prohibitively, from a statistical perspective, improbable (that is the chance of them occurring approaches zero).

That would be Behe’s contention.

As far as proofs for evolution are concerned, at least vis a vis ectrodactyly amongst the Vadoma, I would think that if this is truly an example of morphological evolution, then we should expect the outcomes predicted by Darwin; that the population would speciate, and continue down it’s own evolutionary path. Do you expect that in this case? If not, why not? Perhaps you now are dropping this as an example of evolution.

My personal view is that in order to completely disprove ID, one must begin with the cell. It’s a rather simple criterion actually – when I see a living cell produced as the result of unguided forces, I will gladly agree ID doesn’t have a leg to stand on.

That finding being unlikely, as far as accepting evolution as the sole explanation for the development of life, what I require is a demonstration of a novel morphological change (novel organs, limb types, body plans, functional capabilities) which is the product of multiple (five in my mind is statistically improbable, and yet necessary to explain certain structures) separate yet interdependent mutations (which aren’t simply changes to genetic regulation) which have the effect of producing increased viability (meaning the population is more successful than the population from which it derived) in a separate, interbreeding population distinguished by said morphological changes.

Hope that is helpful.




Agahnim -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/2/2008 9:30:29 PM)

quote:

As far as proofs for evolution are concerned, at least vis a vis ectrodactyly amongst the Vadoma, I would think that if this is truly an example of morphological evolution, then we should expect the outcomes predicted by Darwin; that the population would speciate, and continue down it’s own evolutionary path. Do you expect that in this case? If not, why not? Perhaps you now are dropping this as an example of evolution.

I suspect that if they were isolated for long enough, the Vadoma would eventually become a separate species. (As you probably know, reproductive isolation is usually a requirement for speciation.) However, when speciation is made to happen as quickly as possible in a laboratory, it usually takes something like 50 generations; under non-ideal circumstances in nature it would probably take at least several hundred generations. Considering the length of the human reproductive cycle, that amounts to a minimum of ten thousand years of isolation for the Vadoma to become a new species, which isn’t likely to actually happen.

quote:

That finding being unlikely, as far as accepting evolution as the sole explanation for the development of life, what I require is a demonstration of a novel morphological change (novel organs, limb types, body plans, functional capabilities) which is the product of multiple (five in my mind is statistically improbable, and yet necessary to explain certain structures) separate yet interdependent mutations (which aren’t simply changes to genetic regulation) which have the effect of producing increased viability (meaning the population is more successful than the population from which it derived) in a separate, interbreeding population distinguished by said morphological changes.

I think this is fairly close to what you’re demanding to see: http://genomebiology.com/2002/3/7/reports/0033

This is a series of several mutations working together to increase the efficiency of the digestive system in the monkeys that have them. The article describes it in this way: "Enzyme functional assays revealed that RNASE1B, unlike the ancestral RNASE1, achieves maximum efficiency in the acidic colobine foregut." The gene for this change started out as a duplication of an existing gene, and then a series of nine substitution mutations occurred in order to change the gene to its current state, seven of which directly contribute to this change: “By contrast, site-directed mutagenesis revealed that seven of the nine substitutions that distinguish the sequence of RNASE1B from that of RNASE1 reduce its efficiency in degrading double-stranded RNA, a task of the ancestral enzyme. It appears that the evolutionarily innovative features of RNASE1B arose at the direct expense of efficiency in its ancestral function.”

By Behe’s standards, the change in these monkeys’ digestive systems is irreducibly complex, because it can’t exist without seven different mutations working together, in addition to the original duplication. According to http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/03/020304081153.htm , the monkeys that have this mutation constitute a separate species from the ancestral group, although the article isn’t specific whether the gene duplication is one of the things that contributed to speciation in this case.

Now, what I’m not sure of is whether what you’re demanding is that these mutations be observed actually happening in the present, but I hope you realize that’s probably an impossible standard of proof. Gene sequencing was not invented until 1975, and it’s only within the past decade or so that it’s been used to analyze the genomes of animals, which generally is not enough time for five separate beneficial mutations to cause the formation of a new species in nature. But the example I’ve given is still an example of what Behe is saying shouldn’t be possible: several separate mutations working together in order to produce a new function, which provides an advantage to the animal that has it.

What do you think of this example?




Jhud -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/3/2008 11:21:33 AM)

quote:

suspect that if they were isolated for long enough, the Vadoma would eventually become a separate species. (As you probably know, reproductive isolation is usually a requirement for speciation.) However, when speciation is made to happen as quickly as possible in a laboratory, it usually takes something like 50 generations; under non-ideal circumstances in nature it would probably take at least several hundred generations. Considering the length of the human reproductive cycle, that amounts to a minimum of ten thousand years of isolation for the Vadoma to become a new species, which isn’t likely to actually happen.


Actually, this would probably make a good test case; gene sequencing can give us an idea of how long the Vadoma have lived as a unique group, and how long ago the mutation which causes ectrodactyly arose in the population. Of course we are stuck with the literature which exists (which seems fairly meager in this case) so I am not sure this is a particularly good case to consider.

quote:

What do you think of this example?


You know, I will readily admit it is probably one of the most robust examples out there, and presents some challenges to ID claims. While I have only gotten a chance to do a cursory reading of the literature, and will spend more time looking at it, my initial reaction is that this (and other examples like it that I know of) probably require some serious consideration by IDists.

However, in a number of respects I think it falls short of what I was looking for as definitive evidence for evolution. For one, the gene duplication and modification really only allows the langur to do more of what the langur family does already – digest leaves, though admittedly it in a significantly more efficient manner. So I am not sure it really represents the origin of a ‘novel’ functionality in the final estimation.

Also, as you admit, it really isn’t certain that this modification in anyway would prevent douc langurs from interbreeding with other Colobine monkeys. Obviously, the ability to exploit certain niches by the doucs itself encourages a separate breeding population, but not necessarily one that is following a unique evolutionary path.

And lastly, and perhaps most obviously, the duplication and subsequent modification of the homologous gene were thought to occur some 4 million years ago; that is evolution is in large part inferred. Perhaps I over looked it in the paper, but no real step-wise description of the accumulation of mutations to the gene seems to be given – instead, it seems to have happened relatively rapidly, in a nonrandom manner. This wouldn’t be a particularly Darwinian either process then either.

But I think it’s worth a longer look, which I will give it as I have time.

quote:

Now, what I’m not sure of is whether what you’re demanding is that these mutations be observed actually happening in the present, but I hope you realize that’s probably an impossible standard of proof. Gene sequencing was not invented until 1975, and it’s only within the past decade or so that it’s been used to analyze the genomes of animals, which generally is not enough time for five separate beneficial mutations to cause the formation of a new species in nature. But the example I’ve given is still an example of what Behe is saying shouldn’t be possible: several separate mutations working together in order to produce a new function, which provides an advantage to the animal that has it.


Actually, there are a growing, and I might add, rather fascinating number of studies which are discussing the power of neofunctionalization, subfunctionalization, and the synthesis of those, subneofunctionalization. All are attempt to explain how it is that a duplication event would lead to either accumulated positive or negative mutations, both of which are possible, and whether or not what we are seeing isn’t instead derivation of ancestral genes which are being specialized and in some cases amplified. I think this is more likely under an ID paradigm.

A lot of this experimentation is based on observation, particularly of microbial organisms, whose ancestry is readily traceable.

It’s all quite new and preliminary, and driven in part by the failure of regular Neo-Darwinian theory to explain the development of life in many respects. I find it quite interesting and I am excited to see how it plays out.




Agahnim -> RE: Evolution is inevitable (4/3/2008 3:34:17 PM)

quote:

And lastly, and perhaps most obviously, the duplication and subsequent modification of the homologous gene were thought to occur some 4 million years ago; that is evolution is in large part inferred. Perhaps I over looked it in the paper, but no real step-wise description of the accumulation of mutations to the gene seems to be given – instead, it seems to have happened relatively rapidly, in a nonrandom manner. This wouldn’t be a particularly Darwinian either process then either.

As I said, considering the amount of time it takes for this type of change to occur, I don’t think anyone can expect to have had the opportunity to observe an example of this directly within the ten years that people have been analyzing the genetics of animals. You’ve also already made it clear that the flying penguins would be convincing to you if those actually existed, but if this was a population recently discovered in Antarctica, nobody would have had the opportunity to directly observe the mutation occurring in their case, either. For these reasons, I don’t think having to observe all of the mutations directly is a reasonable requirement for what could be considered a falsification of Behe’s argument, as long as it’s possible to determine that they occurred in the past.

I think the paper itself might go into more detail about the steps through which the mutations accumulated; all I’ve linked to is a summary of the findings and a press release about them. Papers like this themselves aren’t generally publicly available, so I can’t link to one of them here. It’s often possible to access them through educational institutions, though.

As for the other two requirements you described, I can certainly come up with cases that meet each requirement individually, although I’m not sure I’ll be able to find a single case which meets all of them at once. In terms of a mutation giving an organism a completely novel functionality, one of my favorite examples is a mutation in a group of Japanese bacteria which gave them the ability to digest nylon. This is described a little here. Since the bacteria that have this mutation are unable to survive without nylon, they could not have existed before nylon was invented in 1935, meaning that this mutation must have occurred sometime within the past 73 years. As for mutations leading to the formation of new species, there are several examples of this listed at http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/faq-speciation.html . You probably won’t be interested in the examples of this involving hybridization and polyploidy, but if you scroll further down there are several examples of observed speciation that don’t.

I’m not sure whether you’ll consider it a falsification of Behe’s argument for there to be examples of each of these things happening individually, though. Does Behe claim that some of these occurrences aren’t possible at all? Or is his assertion that mutations can create entirely new functions; they can lead to the formation of new species; and several mutations can work together to cause an improvement in survivability, but what isn’t possible is for all three things to happen simultaneously?




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