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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/17/2008 12:15:39 PM
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bzirk
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quote:
ORIGINAL: NoShow
quote:
ORIGINAL: bzirk
When compared to the thrift failures from the S&L crisis, it's nothing, and we survived that.
Seriously, even when you throw in Freddie and Fannie into the equations?
Plus, I would have thought that MBS and CDO would have somewhat leveraged things up, making this worse.
I think I make the case in the rest of the post that this is not really like the S&L crisis, but I do believe we can survive it. It's much bigger and much more entrenched in so many aspects of the economy. The government is almost leveraged out and certainly in no position to bail out a bunch of banks and Freddie and Fannie to boot. So those two institutions showing signs of trouble is bad, real bad. Frankly, that news has done more to give me a shake than anything.
Speaking of MBS and CDO, very few are aware of the potential bond insurance crisis. They are barely making it, and if those bond insurers start to fail, people just think they have a probelm now. Wait until that happens. That will affect almost all the governmental entities in this country -- schools, cities, utitilty districts, water districts, and on and on and on.
If nothing else, people need to WAKE UP. We've had a free lunch for way too long, and we've been ignorant. We cannot afford that ignorance any longer. Some of the people who contributed to the housing debacle did so in ignorance. Poeple have got to wise up.
_____________________________
Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/17/2008 12:45:29 PM
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NoShow
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Considering Fannie and Freddie were preceived as "insurance" when you add that together with the bond insurance situation, things are pretty ugly.
That's why I don't get people that are saying, "let Fannie and Freddie go under, they're just getting what they deserve." Because the repercussions that will follow it will pretty much be felt by all.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/17/2008 2:42:21 PM
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relady
Posts: 1040
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quote:
not only the banks...but, the many, many people who "fudged" their income and other items on their loan forms (especially with "no income documentation loans"), in order to "qualify" for houses that they shouldn't have gotten....
AND, real estate speculators, as well...
they, along with some mortgage banks, are ALL to blame....it created the "perfect storm"......all came crashing down at once.....
Yup, sure did. However, a lot of the "fudging" of figures was done at the behest of loan officers, so....while the consumers do bear some of the blame, I put the lion's share of it on the lenders and their loan officers.
There was a lot of out and out fraud going on, and that was a two way street for sure. Again, a lot of this fraud was made possible by the banks lobbying ang getting regulations removed. Regulations need to be replace, asap, and it cannot be done fast enough.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/17/2008 3:32:32 PM
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jaimestarcross
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I see a lot of reaping what was sowed from years ago - there's more to come on the horizon... especially since a large majority of baby-boomers(millions of them) are going to be retiring in a few more years. A lot of real estate is owned by older people- as they age and require more health care - those properties will be put up for sale... the statistics have shown that a vast majority of retirees did not plan properly for retirement and others haven't saved any money for retirement. (We see this in the workplace - older people are working past retirement age - many of them have done(or doing) HUD's reverse mortgages.)
As divorce and or single parenting rises that too will play a role in the economy... due to a lack of funds many single and or divorced parents are forced to seek welfare assistance... many families are also generational welfare clients.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/17/2008 5:26:37 PM
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kernsfamily
Posts: 1311
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quote:
As divorce and or single parenting rises that too will play a role in the economy... due to a lack of funds many single and or divorced parents are forced to seek welfare assistance
Of the divorced women i know here at my office, and other places (my sister, for instance), their financial condition IMPROVED once they removed the "freeloading/lazy/slacker" so-called "husband" from their lives.....and, now, their financial condition, and future, have never been brighter...considering their ability to provide for themselves is greater today than it was for women just a few generations ago, who were essentially "prisoners" of bad marriages, and simply had to put up with adultery, abuse, neglect, etc...etc..., with no real way of supporting themselves even if they did get a divorce...
....(haven't looked, but I would bet that the divorce rate has either "leveled off" or is even on a "downward trend"....and, really isn't rising....)
_____________________________
Proud dad of 3 great girls....Erin, Emilie and Elise
Blessed to have all of them in a "totally awesome" public elementary school!
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/17/2008 7:47:47 PM
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prophet
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quote:
ORIGINAL: bzirk
quote:
ORIGINAL: NoShow
quote:
ORIGINAL: bzirk
When compared to the thrift failures from the S&L crisis, it's nothing, and we survived that.
Seriously, even when you throw in Freddie and Fannie into the equations?
Plus, I would have thought that MBS and CDO would have somewhat leveraged things up, making this worse.
I think I make the case in the rest of the post that this is not really like the S&L crisis, but I do believe we can survive it. It's much bigger and much more entrenched in so many aspects of the economy. The government is almost leveraged out and certainly in no position to bail out a bunch of banks and Freddie and Fannie to boot. So those two institutions showing signs of trouble is bad, real bad. Frankly, that news has done more to give me a shake than anything.
Speaking of MBS and CDO, very few are aware of the potential bond insurance crisis. They are barely making it, and if those bond insurers start to fail, people just think they have a probelm now. Wait until that happens. That will affect almost all the governmental entities in this country -- schools, cities, utitilty districts, water districts, and on and on and on.
If nothing else, people need to WAKE UP. We've had a free lunch for way too long, and we've been ignorant. We cannot afford that ignorance any longer. Some of the people who contributed to the housing debacle did so in ignorance. Poeple have got to wise up.
Sorry, whats S & L?
i agree that its only starting. When those derivative garbage starts to unwind proper, you could see REAL problems. The weather is buidling up to the PERFECT STORM.
i believe its already too late...sorry to say that but the dream is becoming a nitemare..... 
But for those who can take action on protecting theiir savings, beware of whats happening in the financial institutions....consider gold.
How much of your savings in these institutions are guaranteed by the
state?
_____________________________
Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/18/2008 12:15:26 PM
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bzirk
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S&L = Savings and Loan -- the debacle of the 90s.
I guess I don't freak out over the American Dream, because years ago I let go of that as something I looked to for hope. That's not to say that I've got a problem with capitalism. It's just not my god and therefore is not my hope. It's also not to say that people shouldn't be wise about their finances. But utlimately, it's about looking to the Lord and finding our peace and confidence in Him.
Paul said he had the secret of contentment in plenty and in want, and it was in the Lord. That's what I want and certainly have access to as a follower of the Lord. Again, none of that is to say we are to excuse poor stewardship, but the scriptures don't instruct anxiety over finances or anxiety over anything. Right above Paul saying he had the secret, he said this:
quote:
Philippians 4
6 Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God.
7And the peace of God, which surpasses all comprehension, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.
8Finally, brethren, whatever is true, whatever is honorable, whatever is right, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is of good repute, if there is any excellence and if anything worthy of praise, dwell on these things.
9The things you have learned and received and heard and seen in me, practice these things, and the God of peace will be with you.
(emphasis mine)
That instruction is pretty clear.
BTW, the ignorance I was referring to in the previous post is not ignorance about the financial sector. It can take years and years to understand. Rather, I was referring to people seeking the Lord about their financial decisions. The Lord has provided much in His written word to help us navigate finances. We need to consult it. Many of those bad loans that were taken by people (including some Christians) would not have happened if they were looking to God's word for their principles.
_____________________________
Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/18/2008 12:49:54 PM
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bzirk
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So what do you do once you've messed up your finances and are in over your head and drowning? You let the Lord walk you out of that situation. He will do it, and I speak from experience.
I got in over my head on a business once, and I'm talking to the tune of millions of dollars. Let me put it this way. I didn't think I could ever dig myself out of that situation, and I wanted to die. The Lord completely showed me how to deal, and I did eveyrthing that the Lord led me to do -- even when it was extremely humiliating. I saw first hand how trusting the Lord over myself is the way to go. So I guess this is my way of saying, don't fret over this economy, the Lord is with you every step of the way.
_____________________________
Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/19/2008 2:20:58 AM
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prophet
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Bzirk
Praise the Lord!
_____________________________
Create in me a Clean Heart, O Lord.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/19/2008 1:19:24 PM
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relady
Posts: 1040
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quote:
Iam sure many people said that exact same thing......80 years ago. Not even that long. In the 70s that was all I was hearing !!
quote:
I am hearing psa's on the radio encouraging people to visit gov't websites for their $40 subsidy coupons so they can buy themselves new HD TV's so they don't suffer when stations stop broadcasting analog. And there are two coupons allowed per family. If that's for real, isn't that just a wonderful thing for the government to do for us? Actually, that's so they can buy a converter to keep their old analog TV's working that aren't hooked up to cable or satellite. Since it is the government that mandated/allowed the sale of the analog signals I think it's only fair they defray the cost for those who don't have cable or satellite.
quote:
I know too many people personally and heard too many interviewed "victims" who freely admit to lying ("fudging") about their income in order to get a house they truly couldn't afford. Individuals spending more than they can afford have to take at least some portion of responsibility for this problem. Absolutely. But i can also assure you that a healthy percentage of consumers who did that...did it at the behest of their loan officer. There is plenty of blame to go around, but i don't expect consumers to know everything about every loan product available. There are just too many and it takes a Philadelphia lawyer to figure out some of the verbiage involved. The lenders and loan officers have a responsibility to be honest don't they?
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/19/2008 1:49:14 PM
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bzirk
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From: Where the deer and antelope play
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I agree that lenders have a higher accountability, since they're supposed to know what's going on, and anyone who is not in the business and who's bought a house that was financed knows how very confusing it can be. But I think consumers and especially Christians do not have to fall victim to that. A good rule of thumb is that things that are too good to be true are too good to be true. People need to check out what they're getting into, and it's never a good idea to take a mortgage broker's word or even a real estate broker's word for it. Those people have a vested interest in what they tell a buyer. That should be common sense, but sometimes common sense goes out the window. It goes out the window mostly because people get caught up in a rush when they're buying a house not the least of which is brought on by lenders and brokers putting pressure on them and/or them just catching the house fever. But it's hard not to think that some of that fever is driven by lenders and brokers playing on the buyer's fear of not being able to buy the house they want.
Something I have lived by in purchasing things like houses is this: Time is on my side. If I can take time to shop, I can find a deal. I do not have to buy this week or this month. The worst time to buy something is when my back is against the wall, and I won't let a broker put me there.
_____________________________
Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/20/2008 1:42:56 AM
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relady
Posts: 1040
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From: Greater St. Louis Metro
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quote:
Something I have lived by in purchasing things like houses is this: Time is on my side. If I can take time to shop, I can find a deal. I do not have to buy this week or this month. The worst time to buy something is when my back is against the wall, and I won't let a broker put me there.
And this is very true, as long as you aren't trying to buy in a hot seller's market - which is what we had going for the last few years. I can't tell you how many buyers I had that lost houses they wanted because they didn't move fast enough. I'm not one to put pressure on but I can tell you a mad buyer who didn't get the house they want because they feel you as a their agent didn't push them hard enough is no fun either. It seems like we Realtors just can't win no matter what we do.  In fact, I don't know too many agents who are that pushy at all. I'm sure they are around, I just don't run in those circles I guess. In all of St. Louis, I know maybe two or three that I actually wonder how they stay in business and if I could do so ethically would refuse to show their listings.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/21/2008 6:08:20 PM
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jaimestarcross
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Kernsfamily:
I'm looking at divorce world wide/various sectors - and many countries are reporting increases in the rate of divorce - (so is the military.)
While I'm happy to see some divorce women are able to provide for themselves and their children - the larger portion of divorced/single moms aren't able to do that yet... without some kind of assistance from others/government agencies.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/22/2008 8:09:24 PM
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bzirk
Posts: 3074
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From: Where the deer and antelope play
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quote:
ORIGINAL: relady
quote:
Something I have lived by in purchasing things like houses is this: Time is on my side. If I can take time to shop, I can find a deal. I do not have to buy this week or this month. The worst time to buy something is when my back is against the wall, and I won't let a broker put me there.
And this is very true, as long as you aren't trying to buy in a hot seller's market - which is what we had going for the last few years. I can't tell you how many buyers I had that lost houses they wanted because they didn't move fast enough. I'm not one to put pressure on but I can tell you a mad buyer who didn't get the house they want because they feel you as a their agent didn't push them hard enough is no fun either. It seems like we Realtors just can't win no matter what we do. In fact, I don't know too many agents who are that pushy at all. I'm sure they are around, I just don't run in those circles I guess. In all of St. Louis, I know maybe two or three that I actually wonder how they stay in business and if I could do so ethically would refuse to show their listings.
My words weren't meant to put down realtors. They are words designed to highlight that a realtor is in the business of facilitating a transaction (usually sooner rather than later), so that they can make some money. There is nothing wrong with them wanting to make money and trying to make money. But someone dealing with them should recognize that. It's the same thing when I go to a car dealership. The sales person can talk to me all day about how great one car is over another and can talk to me about financing, but at the end of the day, they have a vested interest in me buying a car. Recognizing that is not a put down of them.
All that aside, I don't think most people have to buy a house. So if it's a seller's market for a few years, there is no harm in waiting until it's a buyer's market.
_____________________________
Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/22/2008 10:04:09 PM
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relady
Posts: 1040
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quote:
The sales person can talk to me all day about how great one car is over another and can talk to me about financing, but at the end of the day, they have a vested interest in me buying a car. Recognizing that is not a put down of them. I know you didn't mean it as a put down.  As far as the car salesman goes, you don't sign a legally binding contract with a car salesman that confers upon him a fiduciary responsibility to watch out for your interests in certain areas of that transaction. In real estate you do, at least you do if you hire and use a Realtor. Do some breach that relationship? Absolutely. But they can also be censured and lose their license for doing so. I have said for a very long time that part of the issue with mortgage brokers is that there is no licensing requirement and that they don't have a fiduciary relationship with their clients. Anyone can just decide to become a mortgage broker, hang out their shingle and if they can find investors to work with them....voila! Mortgage broker. They should have to be licensed and regulated just like we Realtors are. That would stop some of the nonsense like selling bad loans just to make money. Sure everyone wants to make a living but I believe in having laws and regulations in place to make sure it is done ethically and legally.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/23/2008 12:17:55 AM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: relady
quote:
Something I have lived by in purchasing things like houses is this: Time is on my side. If I can take time to shop, I can find a deal. I do not have to buy this week or this month. The worst time to buy something is when my back is against the wall, and I won't let a broker put me there.
And this is very true, as long as you aren't trying to buy in a hot seller's market - which is what we had going for the last few years.
Even in a hot market, time is on the buyers side though it may not feel like it. You don't have to buy a house - even if it's your dream house. If not being able to act quickly enough means I have to take a pass, then so be it. I've bought houses in Seattle and in Colorado when both markets were fairly hot. I nearly lost out on the house we currently own - a better offer came in just minutes after we had inked our deal.
Still, I would never allow myself to be pressured into a purchase. If you have all your issues put to bed before you ever go house hunting (pre-approved for the loan, budget calculated, lawyer identified and lined up, offer contingencies determined and written etc.) there just isn't that much of a reason to have to be pressured into a poor decision.
Being educated and prepared will make being able to act fast easier, not harder. Bottom line - do your homework, and THEN go shopping.
Now, I realize all that that's easier said than done. With my wife breathing down my neck as I read through an offer document, it's not always easy to focus ;).
BT
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/23/2008 1:44:56 AM
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bzirk
Posts: 3074
Joined: 4/11/2005
From: Where the deer and antelope play
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
quote:
ORIGINAL: relady
quote:
Something I have lived by in purchasing things like houses is this: Time is on my side. If I can take time to shop, I can find a deal. I do not have to buy this week or this month. The worst time to buy something is when my back is against the wall, and I won't let a broker put me there.
And this is very true, as long as you aren't trying to buy in a hot seller's market - which is what we had going for the last few years.
Even in a hot market, time is on the buyers side though it may not feel like it. You don't have to buy a house - even if it's your dream house. If not being able to act quickly enough means I have to take a pass, then so be it. I've bought houses in Seattle and in Colorado when both markets were fairly hot. I nearly lost out on the house we currently own - a better offer came in just minutes after we had inked our deal.
Still, I would never allow myself to be pressured into a purchase. If you have all your issues put to bed before you ever go house hunting (pre-approved for the loan, budget calculated, lawyer identified and lined up, offer contingencies determined and written etc.) there just isn't that much of a reason to have to be pressured into a poor decision.
Being educated and prepared will make being able to act fast easier, not harder. Bottom line - do your homework, and THEN go shopping.
Now, I realize all that that's easier said than done. With my wife breathing down my neck as I read through an offer document, it's not always easy to focus ;).
BT
_____________________________
Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/29/2008 6:17:32 AM
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ChesterDash
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What do I think of your economy?
IT IS STUFFED!!
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/29/2008 1:49:52 PM
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bzirk
Posts: 3074
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From: Where the deer and antelope play
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quote:
ORIGINAL: relady
quote:
The sales person can talk to me all day about how great one car is over another and can talk to me about financing, but at the end of the day, they have a vested interest in me buying a car. Recognizing that is not a put down of them. I know you didn't mean it as a put down. As far as the car salesman goes, you don't sign a legally binding contract with a car salesman that confers upon him a fiduciary responsibility to watch out for your interests in certain areas of that transaction. In real estate you do, at least you do if you hire and use a Realtor. Do some breach that relationship? Absolutely. But they can also be censured and lose their license for doing so. I have said for a very long time that part of the issue with mortgage brokers is that there is no licensing requirement and that they don't have a fiduciary relationship with their clients. Anyone can just decide to become a mortgage broker, hang out their shingle and if they can find investors to work with them....voila! Mortgage broker. They should have to be licensed and regulated just like we Realtors are. That would stop some of the nonsense like selling bad loans just to make money. Sure everyone wants to make a living but I believe in having laws and regulations in place to make sure it is done ethically and legally.
I hear you, and I think the mortgage brokers are headed for just that. If they had been able to police themselves, then this wouldn't be an issue. But we see now that greed overruled ethics.
_____________________________
Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus (Romans 8:1)
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 7/29/2008 5:57:13 PM
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relady
Posts: 1040
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quote:
I hear you, and I think the mortgage brokers are headed for just that. If they had been able to police themselves, then this wouldn't be an issue. But we see now that greed overruled ethics. Yup, and I am really getting sick and tired of all their whining. LOL.
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RE: what do you think about our economy? - 8/2/2008 9:26:16 AM
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prophet
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Yes, That's $2 Trillion of Debt-Related Losses
Nouriel Roubini, Economist and Professor, New York University
By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
AN INTERVIEW WITH NOURIEL ROUBINI: Maybe now somebody will listen. (Video)
LIKE THE EXHORTATIONS OF JEREMIAH TO THE NATION OF Israel before the first temple's destruction, the warnings of economist Nouriel Roubini fell on deaf ears. For the past two years Roubini, a professor at New York University, has cautioned about a huge housing bubble whose bursting would lead to a 20% drop in home prices; a collapse in subprime mortgages; a severe banking crisis and credit crunch; the near-failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , and a U.S. recession of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression. So far, this latter-day prophet of doom has been on the mark, though time will tell about the recession part.
A Turkish native who grew up in Italy, Roubini trained at Harvard and later advised the Clinton White House, after his blog on the Asian financial crisis attracted the attention of Washington's economic and political elite. Roubini still publishes the blog -- the RGE Monitor -- and teaches economics at NYU's Stern School of Business. We caught up with him recently at his offices in lower Manhattan, and continued the conversation at Barron's. For his latest predictions, please read on.
Chris Casaburi
"A systemic banking crisis will go on for a while, with hundreds of banks going belly-up." --Nouriel Roubini
Barron's: Unfortunately f | | |
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